The natural gas demand has increased rapidly in the Mediterranean region during the last decades, three times more quickly than the total consumption of primary energy (on average, 7% per annum for the gas consumption compared with 2.6% per annum for the overall energy consumption). Between 1971 and 2005, the natural gas consumption has multiplied by a factor of 10, going from 27 billions cubic meters (bcm) to about 288 bcm. The contribution of gas in the Mediterranean energy balance represented more than 26% in 2005 against only 6% in 1971.


In 1971, only five Mediterranean countries used gas, and today, gas has a significant share in the energy balance of almost all the Mediterranean countries. After Portugal in 1997 (first gas deliveries through GPDF pipeline), Greece in 1999 (first LNG from Algeria), Jordan in August 2003 (Egyptian gas through the Arab Gas Pipeline), Morocco in January 2005 (with commissioning its first NGCC at Tahadart near Tangiers thanks to the Algerian gas supplied by the GPDF Gasline), and sooner with Lebanon (with arrival of Syrian gas at the end of 2007), Palestine and Israel, all Mediterranean countries will consume natural gas.


Prospects are quiet promising, owing to the fact that natural gas is abundant and available in the region (8300 bcm of proven reserves at the end 2004), that it is the cheapest option for most of final uses, and that it is the least pollutant fossil fuel.


OME has elaborated a projective scenario based on data gathered from national sources (companies and energy ministries) of which some key elements on natural gas prospects are presented in this report.


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Etudes
Secteur Hydrocarbures






Le cadre institutionnel des secteurs de l’électricité et du gaz dans les pays du sud et de l’est de la Méditerranée, Décembre 2004

Texte integral disponible seulement aux Membres







Le monde de l’énergie est confronté, depuis quelques années, à un mouvement de restructuration tendant à ouvrir à la concurrence et à privatiser les secteurs de l’électricité et du gaz naturel, traditionnellement monopolistiques et sous contrôle des états. Cette tendance, partie des pays industrialisés, concerne désormais les pays méditerranéens. Sous la pression de l’environnement international et des contraintes économiques auxquelles ils font face, les pays du sud et de l’est de la Méditerranée ont, pour beaucoup, ouvert la production d’électricité au secteur privé et tendent à appliquer des modèles concurrentiels à leurs industries gazières et électriques.

Cette étude propose une analyse des causes et des implications des restructurations institutionnelles en cours dans les secteurs de l’électricité et du gaz. Elle présente un panorama des politiques énergétiques et de l’état d’avancement des réformes dans les pays du sud et de l’est de la Méditerranée en 2004.
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In 2004, the OME has updated for its Members the previous OME Gas Study of 2001 for the EC-DG TREN. The study deals with the present and future gas supply potential to Europe from existing and potential new sources (2002, 2010, 2020). The study assesses reserves, resources, production potential, internal gas demand of producing countries, energy strategy, geopolitical considerations, existing and potential gas routes (pipelines and LNG), existing and planned infrastructure capacity, export potential, production and transport costs (pipeline and LNG) to Europe, etc. Supply costs curves are given for 2010 and 2020. The study is an Internal OME study, but a summary of the main results has been published in the OME NewsLetter Nr.24 of June 2004. Masquer

L’OME, en association avec la Sonatrach et l’European University Institute (Florence), a réalisé une étude sur "le développement de l’offre d’énergie pour l’Europe, en provenance du Sud et de l’Est de la Méditerranée" dans le cadre du programme Synergy de la DG-TREN de la Commission européenne.

Cette étude Medsupply vise d’une part à soutenir les exportations d’énergie des pays du sud et de l’est de la Méditerranée (PSEM) à destination de l’Europe, et d’autre part à promouvoir le dialogue entre l’Union européenne et ces pays

Les tâches principales de l’étude comportent :

- l’examen des perspectives de production et d’exportation de pétrole et de gaz vers l’Europe et de nouvelles infrastructures nécessaires ;

- l’analyse du rôle de la Méditerranée comme carrefour de transit des hydrocarbures de la région méditerranéenne pour des hydrocarbures en provenance du Golfe et de la région Caspienne ;

- l’analyse de la législation concernant l’organisation du secteur de l’énergie, les investissements étrangers, le partenariat ; et les contraintes de financement avec proposition de plan d’actions ;

- le développement du dialogue entre l’UE et les pays de la région pour promouvoir les échanges énergétiques ;

- le développement des énergies renouvelables dans la région dans le cadre du Protocole de Kyoto.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


CHAPTER 1 PROSPECTS OF OIL AND GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES AND NEED FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

Sub-Chapter 1.1. Assessment of oil and gas reserves and resources, oil and gas export scenarios.

Sub-Chapter 1.2. Existing and planned oil and gas export infrastructure


CHAPTER 2 TRANSIT ROLE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION FOR HYDROCARBONS COMING FROM THE GULF AND CASPIAN REGIONS.


CHAPTER 3 ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO MOBILIZE THE FINANCING FOR HYDROCARBON EXPORT PROJECTS AND PROPOSAL OF ACTION.


CHAPTER 4 PROSPECTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION AND THE ROLE OF KYOTO MECHANISMS FOR THEIR DEVELOPMENT.

Sub-Chapter 4.1. Renewable energy sources in selected Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries: Status, prospects, barriers and opportunities.

Sub-Chapter 4.2. The potential role of the Kyoto mechanisms for the development of renewable energy sources in the Mediterranean region.

Annex 1. The Kyoto Protocol.

Annex 2. The Marrakech Accords.

Annex 3. The New Delhi Accords.

Annex 4. Clean Development Mechanisms: Project Design Document.

Annex 5. Glossary of terms in the CDM PDD.

Annex 6. Clean Development Mechanism simplified project.

Annex 7. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament.


CHAPTER 5 PROMOTION OF THE ENERGY DIALOGUE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION Masquer

The study was carried out on the initiative of the Hydrocarbons Committee co-ordinated by OME (with AGIP-Petroli, SONATRACH, TOTAL, ETAP, …) to identify the most significant trends in the refining sector in the Mediterranean in the medium and long term. It’s an update of a study carried out in 1999 and is organised in the following way.

Chapter one describes succinctly the broad trends in energy development in the world and in the Mediterranean during the period 1998 – 2010.

Chapter two analyses trends in the demand of oil products for the whole of the Mediterranean as a whole by geographic area (North- South) and by country.

Chapter three summarizes the results of simulations of the balance between supply and demand for Oil products up to the year 2010 and the impact of these results on the volume of trade according to different scenarios.

The purpose of this study is:

• To understand and make information available regarding the changes in national and regional industries in the countries and the member companies of OME,

• To analyze and understand the implications of these changes for the national and regional markets,

• To examine the impact of these changes on questions such as the energy policy, security of supply, the functioning of the market for oil products, the structure of demand and so on.

• To exchange experiences learned in member countries and to encourage dialogue between them.

• If possible to enable common positions to be established on important questions.


This report also deals with the qualitative and quantitative differences

1. The fact that in the Mediterranean area, there are growing quantities of Crude oil available, originating from the Caspian Sea.

2. The analysis of the capacity of conversion (degree of complexity) of the refineries.

3. The use of semi-finished products (feedstocks) by the refineries, and the analysis of their flow within the same refinery.

4. The demand for quality products, that is the proportion of sulfur contained, regulated by an EU Norm.

5. The improvement of the definition of the area covered by the Mediterranean as far as the refining industry is concerned.

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The ‘’LNG Prospects for the Mediterranean Study’’ was elaborated in December 2001, updating the first 1999 study.

The study is divided on four chapters four :

1 – Gas Demand and Supply in the Mediterranean Area

2 – Existing and Planned LNG Infrastructure

3 – Economics of the LNG Chain

4 – LNG Market Potential in the Mediterranean Area

The LNG exports began, for the first time in the world, in Algeria thirty years ago. The World LNG exports reached 72 bcm in 1990. Ten years later, this volume has doubled reaching 143 bcm in 2001. Now, Algeria is the second LNG world exporter with 26 bcm just behind Indonesia with 32 bcm.

Considering all LNG projects announced for the whole LNG chain (LNG plants, LNG reception terminals and LNG tankers), we are noticed that the probable volume of LNG exchanges would rize to 280 bcm/yr (210 Mt/yr) in the next 10 years.

In the study, numerous informations are collected about the existing LNG infrastructure (LNG plants, regasification terminals and tankers) but also on the planned LNG projects. All this LNG infrastructure is described in the chapter two of this study. The details and numerous tables on LNG Industry are given in annexe of the study, as a table of Existing LNG Plants, a table of LNG Plants Projects, a table of Existing LNG Terminals, a table of LNG Terminals Projects, a table of LNG Tankers in operation (at end 2000), and a table of LNG Tankers ordered (at 1 July 2001).

Summarising the existing LNG infrastructure at the end of 2000, it is composed by :

- 67 existing LNG trains with 122 Mt/yr capacity,

- 40 LNG terminals with 262 Mt/yr capacity,

- 127 LNG tankers with cumulative capacity equivalent to 14 Millions m3 liquid (which transported 138 bcm in 2000).

Concerning LNG projects planned to build, they would include :

- 64 new LNG trains with 196 Mt/yr additional capacity,

- 43 LNG terminals with 88 Mt/yr capacity

- 59 LNG tankers with cumulative capacity equivalent to 8 millions m3. Masquer

This study assesses future (2010-2020) supply options and potential supply volumes to the European Union (EU-15 and EU-30) as well as the infrastructure required. For each supply option, the cost of supplying the gas to Europe has been estimated and supply cost curves elaborated. The cost of future supplies is compared to the future value of the gas to the consumers of the European Union. Finally, the impact of liberalisation of the EU gas market on the financing of supply projects is examined. The study has been carried out for the EC-DG TREN Masquer

L'étude est menée avec le soutien du programme Synergy de l'Union Européenne. Elle est structurée en deux parties :


· la première partie traite de la situation d'ensemble des marchés des GPL en Méditerranée (évolution de l'économie des GPL, utilisations actuelles et potentielles, dynamique sectorielle, structure des approvisionnements, …),

· la deuxième partie traite de la situation actuelle et des perspectives de croissance (horizon 2010) des marchés des GPL par pays (historique du marché des GPL, utilisations sectorielles, approvisionnement du marché local, infrastructures, principaux acteurs sur le marché local, …).

La réalisation de l'étude comporte de nombreuses visites de terrain et s'appuie sur l'acquis que représentent les travaux menés antérieurement par l'OME, notamment l'importante enquête réalisée en 1998 sur les perspectives de croissance des marchés des produits pétroliers et des GPL dans les pays méditerranéens. Masquer

Le rapport vise à une meilleure compréhension des problèmes énergétiques et à présenter les questions importantes qui vont être adressées lors de la réunion des Présidents à Cannes.

Il fournit des éléments de synthèse sur les thèmes suivants :

- principaux développements du cadre institutionnel dans les secteurs des hydrocarbures et de l’électricité dans les pays Méditerranéens ;

- inventaire des principaux projets pétrole, gaz naturel et électricité dans les pays du Sud et de l’Est Méditerranéens ;

- décisions adoptées lors de la Conférence de Kyoto concernant les réductions des émissions de gaz à effet de serre et aux conséquences possibles de la mise en œuvre du protocole de Kyoto dans l’industrie énergétique ;

- la situation de la coopération continue entre l’Union Européenne et les pays Méditerranéens dans le secteur énergétique ; son cadre général et les principaux accords de coopération. Masquer

Etudes
Secteur Hydrocarbures






Le Marché du Gaz Naturel dans les pays de la Méditerranée Occidentale, statut actuel et perspectives futures, Décembre 1997

Texte integral disponible seulement aux Membres







The Middle East includes large actual and potential gas producers that can significantly alter the supply and demand picture, both within the region and internationally.

Given its resource base, the region has the potential to become a leading word supplier of gas, however, Middle Eastern countries need to overcome the institutional, political and economic barriers they encounter in order to achieve full potential.

This study focuses on the numerous new natural gas export projects in the Middle East and expected increase in the region’s share of world gas exports.

Historically, at flat levels, Middle East consumption will experience a substantial increase thereby having an impact on the region’s structure of energy consumption and on international energy trade in general.



The study is structured in the following way:


I - Natural Gas Reserves

II - Natural Gas Development and Production

III - Natural Gas Consumption and Utilisation

IV - Natural Gas Trade

V - Natural Gas Interconnection (with the Gaslines & the LNG existing or under construction)

Country profiles (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen).

Etudes
Secteur Hydrocarbures






Le Marché du Gaz Naturel dans les pays de la Méditerranée Occidentale, statut actuel et perspectives futures, Décembre 1997

Texte integral disponible seulement aux Membres







The Middle East includes large actual and potential gas producers that can significantly alter the supply and demand picture, both within the region and internationally.

Given its resource base, the region has the potential to become a leading word supplier of gas, however, Middle Eastern countries need to overcome the institutional, political and economic barriers they encounter in order to achieve full potential.

This study focuses on the numerous new natural gas export projects in the Middle East and expected increase in the region’s share of world gas exports.

Historically, at flat levels, Middle East consumption will experience a substantial increase thereby having an impact on the region’s structure of energy consumption and on international energy trade in general.



The study is structured in the following way:


I - Natural Gas Reserves

II - Natural Gas Development and Production

III - Natural Gas Consumption and Utilisation

IV - Natural Gas Trade

V - Natural Gas Interconnection (with the Gaslines & the LNG existing or under construction)

Country profiles (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen).

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